Turkey and Daesh: heading for all-out war?
02:56PM Thu 30 Jun, 2016
BEIRUT: The Turkish authorities have accused the Daesh group of carrying out the attack on Istanbul’s international airport that killed 41 people.
Long accused of complacency toward Daesh (Arabic acronym of Islamic State), Turkey has changed its approach since joining the US-led coalition against the terrorist groupin August 2015.
Daesh has long relied on Turkey as a conduit for reinforcements and weapons bound for Syria to fight the regime of Bashar Assad, his armed opponents and Al-Nusra Front, the branch of Al-Qaeda in the war-torn country.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan openly advocated the downfall Assad. He therefore supported all components of the rebellion since the start of the conflict in Syria in 2011 that has now killed more than 280,000 people and forced millions to flee their homes.
In August 2015, Turkey joined the international military coalition against Daesh which, along with Russia, is mainly targeting the jihadists’ oil facilities, including many fields and wells.
“Strangely, Daesh accuses Turkey of lending support to the YPG (Kurdish People’s Protection Units) and has blamed Turkey — and others — for the loss of territory along the border,” says Aron Stein of the Atlantic Council think-tank.
For its part, after having condoned Daesh’s activities, police have been “hitting Daesh in Turkey pretty hard” including raids in Gaziantep and elsewhere. And Ankara announced recently that its forces were shelling Daesh positions in Syria.
Although no-one has claimed responsibility for the attack on Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport, Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said “the evidence points to Daesh.”
According to the Soufan Group intelligence consultancy, “Turkey has become a prime target for the Daesh in the last year. It has been mentioned several times in the group’s English-language magazine, Dabiq; President Erdogan was featured on the cover of issue 11.”
Turkey also believes that Daesh hit it where it hurts, especially tourism, which brings the country’s economy around $30 billion a year.
Ege Seckin of IHS Country Risk says that “the attack was most likely conducted by the Daesh to undermine the Turkish economy by attacking the airport ahead of the summer months, when tourism peaks.”
Daesh, which is normally quick to claim responsibility and reveal gory details of its attacks, has always been discreet when it comes to Turkey.
Unlike Kurdish separatists, it has never endorsed attacks in the country except against Syrian citizen journalists.
“It’s unclear why Daesh doesn’t claim credit, but it appears to be part of a broader strategy to exacerbate internal Turkish tensions, ranging from political polarization to the Kurdish-Turkish conflict,” says Stein of the Atlantic Council.
The airport attack could mark a turning point.
“If the Islamic State is indeed behind this attack, this would be a declaration of war,” says Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute.
“Thus far, Turkey has avoided engaging the Daesh in full war, instead prioritizing its battle against the Assad regime and the Syrian Kurds. For Turkey, fighting the Daesh as a first order battle could now be unavoidable.”
AFP