Monsoon 28% surplus so far, covers 2/3 India

PUNE/NEW DELHI: The monsoon has made a spectacular start and if the India meteorological department's (IMD) updated forecast issued on Friday holds true, the country will get normal rains (98%) this year. In its first two weeks, monsoon has covered two-thirds of the country and overall rainfall to date is 28% above the long period average (LPA). The met office said 78% of the 36 sub-divisions have recorded excess rain so far. "The actual rainfall recorded so far since June 1 is 65mm as against the normal of 50.6mm," an analysis released by the IMD said. In its monsoon update, the met office has stuck to its April prediction of 98% rainfall during the current season. It said rain in July is expected to be 101% of the LPA though there will be a relative reduction in August which has been predicted to see 96% of the LPA. While IMD's traditional six parameter ensemble statistical forecasting system has thrown up a 98% LPA monsoon, its experimental forecast system based on the monsoon mission's dynamical prediction system has indicated 108% of LPA rainfall for the season with an error margin of +/-4%. The only point of slight concern is northwest India, which saw the lowest amount of rain across the four meteorological regions in the country last year. This year, the region is expected to receive 94% of normal rainfall. The prediction for other regions is close to 100% — 98% for both central and northeast India, and a healthy 103% for south peninsula. Dr D S Pai, director (long-range forecast), IMD, said chances of weak La Nina conditions developing in the second half of the monsoon were being indicated, which could boost rains in that period. La Nina is the name given to unusual cooling of east central Pacific Ocean waters which is seen to aid the southwest monsoon. "There is a 65% probability of neutral conditions continuing in the Pacific through the season. However, the probability of a weak La Nina emerging during the later part of the monsoon season has increased," said Pai. On the other hand, Pai said that a weak Indian Ocean Dipole, a cooling of western Indian Ocean region that inhibits the monsoon, is likely to develop towards the second half of the monsoon. "It is likely to set in towards the end of the monsoon and peak after the season is over. In the event that it becomes strong during the monsoon, it could have a negative impact on the rains. But it appears that it would be weak and hence not have much impact finally," he said. After arriving in Kerala on June 1 — the normal arrival date, to signal the beginning of the rainy season in the country — the monsoon has made a rapid advance. "There has been good rainfall activity in most areas covered so far by the monsoon. The coastal areas, in particular, have received fairly widespread and heavy rain," an IMD official here said. The monsoon rainfall is critical to the country's mainly agriculture based economy as almost 60% of the cultivable land falls under the rain fed area, totally dependent on the monsoon. The IMD has forecast favourable conditions for the monsoon to move into some more parts of Rajasthan, remaining parts of Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and West Bengal and Sikkim and some parts of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh during the next 48 hours. "Conditions are also favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into more parts of northwest India, including Delhi, earlier than its normal schedule," the IMD has predicted. Of the 36 IMD sub-divisions, 27 have reported excess rainfall while another four sub-divisions have recorded normal rains. Two sub-divisions, Gangetic West Bengal and Haryana, have recorded deficient rainfall while another three, Arunachal Pradesh; Assam; and Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura (MNMMT) have recorded scanty rainfall. Region-wise, central India has recorded 109% surplus rain and south peninsula 59%. Even in northwest India, there has been 50% surplus rain. The only exception has been the east and northeast region, which has reported a 47% rainfall deficiency. Source: TOI