Exit Polls: Samajwadi Party clearly ahead in UP, Congress has edge in Punjab and Uttarakhand

New Delhi - 04 March 2012: The Samajwadi Party is the clear No.1 in Uttar Pradesh, perhaps even in line for a majority, while the Congress has the edge in close races in Punjab, Uttarakhand and Manipur, and the BJP in Goa, if exit polls are to be believed.

Pollsters were unanimous that the SP would end in pole position when the votes are counted on Tuesday, though the projected seats for the party in the 403-member UP assembly ranged from 141 to 183. In fact, the CNN-IBN-CSDS poll, which has so far projected vote shares but not seats in the state, gave the SP 34% to the BSP's 24%. Given that the BSP swept to a majority with 30% of the votes in 2007, that suggests a comfortable majority for the SP this time.

All the polls also agreed that there would be a sharp erosion in the BSP's tally of seats, with the projections ranging from 83 to 126, making it a distant second and a far cry from the 206 it won in 2007. The BJP is seen as gaining somewhat and the consensus is that it will remain in third spot.

Exit polls give BJP 3rd slot in UP

The BJP is likely to be placed third in the UP assembly, after the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, exit polls say. In some of the exit polls, the BJP even comes close to challenging BSP for the second spot.

The CNN-IBN-CSDS poll puts the SP ahead across all regions and communities of UP. For the Congress, if the polls are right, there is little to cheer despite predictions that its tally would at least double and even touch 60-70 from the 22 it won last time.

In Punjab and Uttarakhand, while most polls are projecting the Congress as ahead in close races, it is not clear whether the majority mark will be reached. The CNN-IBN-CSDS poll, unlike the rest, actually gives the Akali-BJP alliance an edge over the Congress in Punjab.

In Manipur, the two exit polls/post-polls that are making projections suggest that while the Congress will be comfortably ahead of the Manipur People's Party-led opposition combine, it might just fall short of a majority.

The Trinamool Congress seems to be making an impressive debut in the state, perhaps even upstaging the main opposition alliance.

In Goa, CVoter for India TV and various other channels and publications, indicated that the BJP-led combine has an edge over the Congress-NCP alliance.

source: TNN