Delhi polls: BJP fumbles, AAP gains poll ground

NEW DELHI: Fuzzy messaging in BJP's campaign is preventing the party gain from perceived discontent against the ruling Congress in Delhi, helping newbie Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) emerge as the surprising X factor in the election. Opinion polls and feedback from interest groups indicate that AAP could be poised to attract a 15-20% vote share, which can ensure a shift of votes away from Congress, does not translate into matching gains for main rival BJP. Estimates about AAP's capacity to win seats vary widely, but Arvind Kejriwal's outfit is suddenly looking more than a mere spoiler, not only worsening Congress's woes but threatening to trip BJP's bid to regain power in Delhi after 15 years. BJP's poll messages fail to sufficiently address key voter groups like youths, professionals, unauthorized colony residents and women, allowing AAP to get away an audacious claim to being a contender for power and setting the stage for a hung Assembly. AAP has made steady inroads not only in the middle class vote but also tapped the discontent that runs deep in Delhi's vast slums, jhuggi jhopri clusters and unauthorized colonies, spinning an alluring tale of deliverance. AAP's success in targeting BJP as a paler version of Congress rests on its aggressive campaign that the debutant party is the true agent of change and voting for the main Opposition will mean pretty much business as usual. Incessant infighting and delayed declaration of a chief ministerial candidate-Kejriwal claimed credit for the declaration too-hampered BJP from keeping an eye on its flanks as the AAP campaign crept up step by step. Its preoccupations distracted BJP from successfully melding the Centre and state incumbencies to its benefit despite the "badlenge Dilli, badlenge Bharat (change Delhi, change India)" slogan as it has not come across as a unified focused force. BJP will hope its national mascot Narendra Modi can charge the campaign, but the party has not been able to convincingly argue how winning Delhi is a vital step towards a pro-BJP mandate in the 2014 Lok Sabha poll. Fusing the Centre's vulnerabilities over a string of scams with potent issues like price rise and poor governance can help BJP pin down Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit who has been nimble footed in avoiding the debris from the Commonwealth Games. BJP's "shasak nahin, sevak hain (not a ruler, but servant)" slogan is adequately humble but does not reflect a resolve to deliver purposeful governance that seems to be a strong element in the public expectation in the election. AAP's defiant pronouncement that it will not ally with BJP or Congress in forming a government was swiftly seized by Dikshit who sketched a scary scenario of political instability in Delhi. BJP leaders have been less effective in attacking AAP and urging voters not to waste their support on a maverick with no stakes in the system.   TOI